An Early Start to the Campaign
The general election campaign between President Biden and former President Trump has kicked off ahead of schedule. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is still contesting the Republican nomination, but faces an uphill battle against Trump. Despite only two states having voted in caucuses or primaries, the chairwoman of the Republican National Committee, Ronna McDaniel, declared Trump to be the party’s presumptive nominee. As a result, both Biden and Trump are already campaigning against each other.
An Unusual Election
This election stands out for several reasons. First, it marks the first time in 112 years that an incumbent president and a former president face off in a rematch. Additionally, never before have two candidates with such low popularity ratings gone up against each other. Both Biden and Trump are viewed unfavorably by over half of Americans. Furthermore, both candidates are the oldest presumptive nominees in modern history, with Biden at 81 and Trump turning 78 in June.
A Dual Referendum
This election will serve as a “dual referendum” as both candidates have recent records to defend. Usually, an incumbent president’s re-election campaign focuses on his record, but in this case, both candidates are under scrutiny. Biden and Trump are viewed unfavorably by a majority of Americans. This unique situation means that many voters will be deciding which candidate to vote against rather than which candidate to support. This is particularly true for the 15% of Americans who dislike both candidates, also known as “double haters.”
A Negative Campaign
Given the dual referendum and dual unpopularity, this election is set to be one of the most negative campaigns in recent memory. Both sides aim to make the election a referendum on the other candidate, leading to a focus on fear rather than hope. Trump’s message revolves around the damage he claims Biden has inflicted on the country, while Biden emphasizes the potential harm a second Trump presidency could bring.
The Strategies for Victory
Strategists from both parties weigh in on what each candidate needs to do to win. Trump’s team must keep the focus on Biden’s record and reassure voters about Trump’s faults. Complaining about the 2020 election being stolen may mobilize Trump’s loyal supporters but alienates moderate voters and “double haters.” On the other hand, Biden needs to effectively communicate his accomplishments and highlight the downsides of choosing Trump. He must offer a positive vision for a second term.
Unpredictable Outcome
While head-to-head polls currently suggest a narrow victory for Trump, their reliability this far ahead of the election is uncertain. Many factors can significantly influence the outcome, including the state of the economy, potential criminal trials for Trump, international crises, third-party candidates, and the health of the elderly candidates. The stakes of this election are enormous, with the candidates offering contrasting futures for the country.
As November approaches, predicting the outcome becomes even more challenging. So, anyone claiming to know how it will come out is simply guessing.
