Ukraine’s Battlefront Setback
Ukraine’s war against Russia’s invasion suffered two significant setbacks this year. The first was on the battlefield, where a planned Ukrainian ground offensive was thwarted by unexpectedly strong Russian fortifications. The second setback is currently unfolding in Washington, as Republicans in Congress have withheld approval for President Biden’s request for $61 billion to support Ukraine’s war effort in 2024.
Political Tug-of-War
The battlefield setback was a painful blow to Ukrainian leaders, who were hopeful that the offensive could turn the tide of the war. However, the political standoff in Washington could prove even more detrimental. If U.S. funding is not swiftly approved, aid from Europe may also dry up, severely hampering Ukraine’s ability to fight back. Chief of staff to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Andriy Yermak, warned that the deadlock poses a “big risk to lose this war.”
Republican Hostage Tactics
Republican leaders in Congress have expressed support for assisting Ukraine in principle. However, they have held the aid hostage as a bargaining chip to push for stricter immigration rules, particularly regarding asylum seekers. The House of Representatives adjourned without acting on the administration’s request, while Senate negotiators fell short in reaching a deal. As a result, Ukraine faces uncertainty over future funding for vital weapons and ammunition.
Consequences of Delayed Funding
Military experts warn that while the Ukrainian armed forces can continue fighting until the end of January with existing ammunition, the uncertainty surrounding future supplies has forced them to scale back operations and reduce artillery fire. This lower level of resources significantly decreases their chances of success. Moreover, if Congress fails to approve funding promptly, it sends a message to other countries that the United States is an unreliable ally driven by domestic politics.
Erosion of Support
While the majority of Americans support continued or increased aid to Ukraine, conservative Republican voters, who have a significant impact during primary elections, disproportionately oppose it. The delay in funding reflects a declining backing for Ukraine’s battle against Russian President Vladimir Putin among GOP voters. This situation has left Ukraine feeling isolated and vulnerable, with their short-term military goal being to survive Russia’s winter offensive.
A Stalemate with High Stakes
Ukraine’s military commander, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, describes the situation as a “deadlock” and warns that without a technological breakthrough, they may not have enough manpower to continue the fight. Peace negotiations seem unlikely, as Putin declared victory and showed confidence in Ukraine’s wavering Western support. Putin aims to replace Zelensky’s government and disband Ukraine’s armed forces, signaling his intention to absorb Ukraine into Russia.
Our Interest in Aid to Ukraine
Providing aid to Ukraine is not just an act of charity; it serves our interests in preventing Putin from further expanding his empire. However, Putin believes he can outlast the support from the West, anticipating that the United States and Europe will eventually tire of assisting Ukraine. The recent political impasse in Washington raises concerns that he may be proven right.