The forthcoming special election to replace Republican former Representative George Santos in a prosperous and highly educated district near New York City promises to offer valuable insights into the political undercurrents influencing suburban regions that may hold the key to the 2024 election.
Throughout the 2022 midterm elections and the subsequent 2023 contests, resistance to the GOP’s posture during the Donald Trump era was evident in white-collar suburban communities. Democrats exceeded expectations in these areas. However, local Democrats are cautioning that recapturing the Santos seat may prove to be a tougher challenge than anticipated by national observers. Notably, Santos managed to secure the seat in 2022, despite President Joe Biden carrying the district in the preceding presidential election.
The primary exception to the trend of growing Democratic support in suburban areas over the past few years has been the Long Island suburbs of New York City, encompassing the 3rd Congressional District previously represented by Santos. Recently, the GOP has steadily made gains in both Nassau (the heart of Santos’ former district) and Suffolk counties on Long Island. These gains have been primarily driven by concerns related to crime, immigration, and inflation, including the soaring cost of housing.
The special election to fill Santos’ seat, expected to be held in February, will serve as a litmus test to gauge the ongoing potency of these issues for Republicans. Furthermore, it will assess whether Democrats can reverse their recent decline on Long Island by portraying the Trump-era GOP as too extreme and by emphasizing their commitment to protecting legal abortion rights – strategies that have proven effective for Democrats in similar regions.
Former Democratic Representative Steve Israel, who previously represented a version of this district, noted, “This will be a localized debate on issues with national significance. The special election will pose challenges for both parties. While Democrats have outperformed expectations in recent national elections, they have underperformed on Long Island in the last three election cycles. Republicans have successfully flipped seats with a compelling message on crime and immigration. On the other hand, the district’s DNA is strongly pro-choice and rejects extremism.”
The recent resurgence of the GOP on Long Island represents a return to historical patterns. Following World War II, Long Island’s growth was partly driven by its affordability and the availability of spacious living options compared to New York City. However, particularly in the post-1950s era, it also attracted White families seeking refuge from crime in the city and resisting racial integration, particularly in schools.
While Nassau and Suffolk Counties are now more racially diverse than in previous decades, they remain significantly segregated in terms of housing and schools. Stanley Feldman, a political science professor at Stony Brook University in Suffolk County, pointed out that both counties have over 120 independent school districts, allowing for the delineation of boundaries around minority populations, thereby preserving predominantly White schools.
In the aftermath of the social and racial upheavals of the 1960s, Republicans held sway in the politics of both Nassau and Suffolk Counties for several decades. The GOP maintained a near-complete grip on the county executive position in both counties from the 1970s through the 1990s and consistently secured substantial presidential margins. Nassau County, in particular, served as the Republican Party’s stronghold and the base of operations for the colorful Al D’Amato, who defied New York’s overall Democratic leaning to win three terms in the U.S. Senate starting in 1980.
