Rules Committee Meeting and Potential Floor Action
The House Rules Committee is set to prepare the articles of impeachment against Alejandro Nicholas Mayorkas, the Homeland Security Secretary, on Monday. If the meeting is held on Monday, the full House could debate and vote on impeachment as early as Tuesday. However, if the meeting is delayed to Tuesday, floor action on Mayorkas will likely shift to Wednesday. The decision to bring the articles of impeachment to the floor depends on the math, as the GOP brass is concerned about the vote count.
The Impact of Rep. Brian Higgins’ Resignation
The retirement of Rep. Brian Higgins, D-N.Y., on Friday has shifted the majority in the House. With 219 Republicans and 212 Democrats, the GOP now holds a seven-seat majority. This change in numbers allows Republicans to pass an impeachment motion without assistance from Democrats, even if they lose three votes on their side. Prior to Higgins stepping down, the margin was only two votes.
Challenges in Ensuring Presence and Support
To successfully impeach Mayorkas, Republicans need to ensure that all members who support impeachment are present on the floor. However, complications arise due to the absence of certain members for various reasons, such as health issues or personal matters. Republicans are working to secure the support of Rep. Ken Buck, R-Colo., who is currently against impeachment.
Special Election and Potential Impact
The outcome of a special election in New York on February 13 could further impact the Republican majority. If former Rep. Tom Suozzi, R-N.Y., wins, the GOP majority will shrink. However, a victory for GOP nominee Mazi Melesa Pilip would strengthen the Republican position.
The Impeachment Process
If and when the House votes, it will consider two articles of impeachment against Mayorkas. One accuses him of disregarding the law, while the other charges him with lying to Congress about border security. The House will likely vote on each article separately. Mayorkas can be impeached if either article is adopted. However, both articles may not necessarily be approved, as was the case in the 1997 impeachment of former President Clinton. Impeachment serves as an indictment, and the Senate acts as a “court” to determine guilt in a trial.
Next Steps in the Senate
If the House approves the impeachment articles, a separate vote will be taken to appoint “impeachment managers” who will serve as prosecutors. The articles of impeachment will then be sent to the Senate. The Senate, with senators as jurors, will hold the trial. Efforts will be made to quickly send the impeachment articles to the Senate after the House vote, though there may be a parliamentary traffic jam due to the Senate’s consideration of a major border security bill. The trial could potentially begin in the week of February 11.
The Senate Trial and Possible Scenarios
The Senate trial begins with a ceremonial exchange of the articles of impeachment between the House and Senate. Usually, all senators sit at their desks while the articles are presented and the managers are introduced. Swearing-in senators as jurors is typically done on the next day, but in this case, it may occur on the first day of the trial. The trial is expected to run from Monday to Saturday, based on Senate rules. U.S. Chief Justice John Roberts is unlikely to preside over the trial, and Senate President Pro Tempore Patty Murray, D-Wash., may take on the role of presiding over the Mayorkas tribunal.
Trials, Votes, and Potential Consequences
The extent of the trial and its proceedings remains uncertain. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., has not provided details about what the trial might look like. However, the Senate is obligated to receive the impeachment articles and swear-in the senators after the House impeaches. The Senate can then decide whether to hold a full trial, dismiss the charges, or directly vote to convict or exonerate Mayorkas. Senate Republicans will closely watch for any attempts by Senate Democrats to bypass the trial. The votes and actions of vulnerable Democrats facing competitive re-election bids will be noted and could impact future campaigns. The House’s ability to secure the votes for impeachment will determine the path forward.
