Key Indicator of Performance and Popularity
As the calendar turns from 2023 to 2024, President Biden’s approval rating stands at 41%-56%, according to a compilation of recent national surveys by Real Clear Politics. The approval rating, a crucial gauge of a president’s performance, clout, and popularity, carries particular significance when an incumbent seeks a second term in the White House. At 81 years old, Biden is running for re-election in 2024.
Decline in Approval Rating
Biden’s approval rating remained in the low to mid 50s during his first six months in office. However, his numbers started to decline in August 2021. The decline can be attributed to criticism of his handling of the ongoing turbulence and a surge in COVID-19 cases, primarily among unvaccinated individuals. Other factors contributing to the drop in approval include soaring inflation, which has been a major concern for Americans, and the influx of migrants attempting to cross the U.S.-Mexico border.
Comparison to Predecessors
Biden’s approval rating is considerably lower than that of his three most recent two-term predecessors, former Presidents Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama, at this point in their presidencies. All three were successfully re-elected. The only recent president with similarly negative approval ratings to Biden’s is his immediate predecessor, , who was defeated by Biden in the 2020 election. In December 2019, Trump’s approval rating stood at 45%-53%, according to a Real Clear Politics poll.
Trump’s Potential Rematch and Polling Predictions
As the new year approaches, Trump remains the frontrunner for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. A rematch between Trump and Biden in the 2024 election appears increasingly likely. Although Biden initially held an advantage over Trump in presidential election surveys, the tide has shifted, with Trump gaining an edge in many polls since October. However, it is essential to note that predictions made more than a year in advance often differ from the actual outcome, as demonstrated by Gallup’s inaccurate prediction of an eight-point loss for President Obama, who ultimately won a decisive victory.
Despite the uncertainties surrounding polls, ignoring them entirely would be a risky move for Biden’s campaign, according to veteran Republican pollster Neil Newhouse. While polls may not be entirely predictive at this stage, they still carry valuable insights.