The West’s Political Transformation
Over the past 20 years, the political landscape of the West has undergone a dramatic transformation. Former Republican strongholds such as Colorado, New Mexico, and Oregon have joined California and Washington as solidly blue states. Even Arizona and Nevada, once reliably red, have become key battlegrounds in presidential elections. However, one state has remained resistant to change: Texas.
A High-Water Mark, Not a Foundation
In the 2020 election, Joe Biden achieved the best showing by a Democratic presidential candidate in Texas in nearly a quarter century, losing the state by only 5 percentage points. Despite this progress, Democrats have struggled to gain a foothold in Texas and build on this momentum. According to Jim Henson, head of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas, Democrats have been unable to find the necessary resources and leverage to challenge Republicans effectively.
The New West: Exploring the Region’s Political Makeover
In a series titled “The New West,” this year’s exploration of the region’s political makeover sought to understand the reasons behind the changing political landscape. While each state has its unique factors, commonalities can be found throughout the West. These include the shifting political leanings of suburbs, increasingly right-leaning state Republican parties, and the growing influence of the Latino electorate.
Texas: A Solid Republican Stronghold
Despite sharing many of these commonalities, Texas remains solidly Republican. One significant factor contributing to this is the size of the state. With a population of 30 million residents spread across two time zones and over 250,000 square miles, reaching voters in Texas is a formidable task. The need to advertise in 20 media markets, including some of the most expensive in the country, makes it harder for Democrats to replicate the success seen in smaller states like Arizona and Nevada.
The Latino Electorate and Conservative Leanings
Another challenge faced by Democrats in Texas is the state’s rapidly expanding Latino electorate. Unlike in California, Arizona, and Colorado, where Latinos tend to lean more liberal, Latinos in Texas are more conservative politically and culturally. This conservative lean can be attributed to various factors, including historical events, religiosity, and the large number of Latinos working in law enforcement or the oil and gas industry.
The Republican Party’s Outreach to Hispanic Voters
One notable difference between Texas and other states is the Republican Party’s long history of actively courting Hispanic voters. Unlike in California, where the Republican Party has been seen as adversarial to the Hispanic community since Proposition 187, Texas Republicans have successfully garnered a significant portion of the Hispanic vote. Democrats argue that this may change if Texas Governor Greg Abbott signs a new law allowing police to arrest individuals crossing the border illegally from Mexico.
A Discouraging Cycle for Democrats
Ultimately, the main reason Democrats have struggled to swing Texas is the overwhelming strength of the Republican Party and the persistent losing streak of Democrats in the state. This discourages party donors, candidates, and political strategists from investing the significant time and resources required to turn Texas into a true presidential battleground. As a result, the cycle of Democratic losses continues, frustrating a generation of Democrats who have longed for Texas to become competitive once more.
Hope for the Future
Despite the challenges, Democrats in Texas remain hopeful. A combination of trend lines, such as a rising Black population, shrinking rural communities, and growing suburbs, coupled with the Republican Party’s restrictive stance on social issues, could eventually lead Texas in the same competitive direction as states like Nevada and Arizona. Lisa Turner, state director of the Lone Star Project, sees these factors as catalysts for change, as Republicans are increasingly seen as encroaching on personal freedoms and liberties.
A Long Road Ahead
While the West may have become the promised land for Democrats over the past two decades, Texas remains a desert they have yet to conquer. The road to a competitive Texas in presidential elections seems long and arduous. However, Democrats in the state understand that hope and perseverance are essential in their quest for political change.
